Reducing debt, whatever it takes ?
Overview
Over the past twenty years, public debt levels have risen sharply in many countries, notably France. This is the result not only of successive crises, but also of historically low interest rates, which have led some countries to underestimate the effects of a lax budgetary policy that is now constraining their ability to act and regulate.
Does this mean that the priority for these countries should be to reduce their debt? In fact, the level of indebtedness is not a good indicator of sustainability; rather, it is a function of the forecast medium-term trajectory. It therefore depends on budget balances, economic growth and future interest rates. Thus, in the reasonable scenario of continued mediocre growth and higher interest rates than before the crises, debt stabilization would require remaining close to a balanced budget. What budgetary restrictions would be needed to achieve this? Who should bear the cost? How can we make the necessary investments to meet the new challenges we face? Under these conditions, can Europe be a way out, or will it be an additional constraint?