Is world trade still a peacemaker ?

In response to the exacerbated protectionism of the 1930s, which contributed to the emergence of a war, the post-1945 world gambled on the commercial integration of economies in the service of reconciliation and peace. The European Coal and Steel Community, the European Economic Community, then the European Union, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade and finally the World Trade Organization: the relative success of the world order thus created may have seemed to validate the Kantian vision of peace through independence and confirm the pacifying promises of trade.

This was to overlook the complex interplay between politics and trade between nations, and the political dependence of the latter. Economic interdependence is both a source of tension and a source of advantage, leading us to seek ways of managing these tensions peacefully. Where to place the cursor largely depends on the political climate. The European experience has shown that trade integration does not lead to political integration. Rising inequalities within developed countries have called into question the acceptability of trade liberalization; the growing power of large emerging countries, climate change and biodiversity loss have raised questions about the benefits of trade; Covid-19 has shown that poorly managed trade dependency can be a factor of vulnerability; and the war in Ukraine, followed by the war between Israel and Hamas, have contributed to political polarization and segmentation that do not facilitate trade cooperation. How can economic interdependence and trade be better organized today in the service of peace?