Rencontres économiques d’Aix-en-Provence 2009
Growth, Demography, Finance: from Major Economic Breakdowns to New Balances
The 9th Rencontres économiques d’Aix-en-Provence took place the 3rd, 4th, 5th of July 2009 on the theme “Growth, Demography, Finance: from Major Economic Breakdowns to New Balances” with as special guest, economic Nobel Prize, Robert W. Fogel.
Final declaration of the 9th Rencontres Économiques of Aix-en-Provence
Download the full Final Declaration_Rencontres économiques d’Aix-en-Provence 2009_UK here
THE ASSESSMENT: THE WORLD HIT BY SIMULTANEOUS ECONOMIC SHOCKS
The world has been hit by four economic shocks with combined effects, for the first time in the last two centuries: a monetary crisis; the appearance of latent conflicts between emerging countries and OECD countries; the unexpected scale of the world consumers’ demand and the ageing of the population. All this has been accompanied by transformations in the labor market, savings and financing conditions, the nature of the market for goods and services and obviously the social protection equilibrium. The likely outlook for the world economy can be predicted for the next six months, but the unknown factor resides in its recovery during the second half of 2010. As of today –July 2009– the cleaning up of banks’ balance sheets has been partially, albeit insufficiently, carried out particularly in Europe and no global scale regulation allows to hope that systemic shocks will not happen again. Stimulus packages, particularly the American one, combined with the impact of temporary decumulation of inventories will result in a mechanic rebound of the US and European economies during the last quarter of 2009 and first quarter of 2010. Beyond that, there is no guarantee for a self-sustained growth of the world economy. The situation is serious and requires drastic decisions to be made.